LANDSCAPES AND WATERSHEDS IN BC ARE AT A HEIGHTENED RISK: “In 1982, John Hewlett urged use of the probabilistic framework. But this cue from the godfather of forest hydrology was completely missed,” stated stated Younes Alila, professional engineer and professor in the UBC Faculty of Forestry
Note to Reader:
Published by the Partnership for Water Sustainability in British Columbia, Waterbucket eNews celebrates the leadership of individuals and organizations who are guided by the Living Water Smart vision. The edition published on May 21, 2024 featured Dr. Younes Alila of the UBC Faculty of Forestry. Through his research thrust over three decades, he landed on a discovery that challenges mainstream practices and provides the foundation for a paradigm-shift in forest hydrology science and practice.
Younes Alila has been making headline news. He is courageous in challenging conventional wisdom about what he believes to be the “misguided and scientifically indefensible” practice of forest hydrology in BC. His findings are relevant to urban drainage practice. His message boils down to RISK AND LIABILITY. The actual consequences of clearcut logging, he warns, are magnified in this era of weather extremes.
STORY BEHIND THE STORY: Landscapes and watersheds in BC are at a heightened risk – extracts from a conversation with Younes Alila
The interview with Dr. Younes Alila is structured in three parts to peel back the layers of what makes his story powerful and compelling. To fully appreciate this story behind the story, the reader really should watch the opening minutes of the VIDEO recorded at UBC-Okanagan. It provides the flavour for the 3-part storyline that follows.
Part One highlights how his work has catapulted Dr. Younes Alila into the headlines. Part Two then goes back in time to explain how his mission as an applied scientist started. Part Three brings the reader back to the present. The spotlight is on the urgency of the heightened risks in BC watersheds, both urban and wilderness.
Click on the image to view the YouTube video
On April 13th 2024, the Interior Watershed Task Force, a coalition concerned with clearcut logging of primary forests and watersheds in BC’s Interior, hosted a Community Town Hall event at UBC Okanagan Campus. In sharing his findings with that audience, Younes Alila laid out a compelling and powerful storyline that he titled Hydrology of Convenience in BC Forestry.
PART ONE – Younes Alila and his findings created a big splash in the BC Legislature
Liabilities and legal ramifications of clearcutting
“For decades in British Columbia, forest hydrologists have determined that clear-cutting has had little to no effect on the frequency and magnitude of large floods. Studies have now concluded that removal of the forest cover DOES IN FACT cause increases in flooding,” stated MLA Mike Morris.
“Upon joining UBC in 1996, Professor Alila immediately observed that forest hydrology was using a unique approach, one not taught or used elsewhere in hydrology. This piqued his curiosity and led to extensive research comparing the two approaches. For nearly two decades, Professor Alila supported by other research scientists conducted numerous comparative research studies.”
“They reviewed decades of hydrological studies and found, without exception, that this unorthodox assessment severely and consistently underestimated the impacts to flooding caused by the loss of forest canopy.”
“The (forestry) textbooks are wrong, This study is conclusively saying there is a link between the massive flooding we see in this province and the amount of forest cover that’s been removed. People better wake up and realize this. There are liabilities and legal ramifications to the province and industry,” concluded MLA Mike Morris.
To view the subsequent discussion between MLA Mike Morris and the Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship, click on the image above or on this link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lCUMe5mzu_AV6g3izYXgBdN59Q0cuk7h/view
When he shared the link, Younes Alila observed that, “I think there has never been a moment in the history of the legislature where such a deep discussion about the science and professional practice of hydrology took place!”
Context for bringing science to the legislature
“Like many others, Mike Morris stumbled upon some of my papers. Not long ago, we were both interviewed by the same journalist for an article. We got to know each other through that article. And then we started talking.”
“Wait a minute, Mike Morris said to me. We have been misguided. He became convinced about the reliability of my findings because my research has been peer reviewed internationally. Better that we recognize erroneous precedent and move forward on the right foot, he concluded.”
“Therefore, he believed he needed to make his colleagues and the government aware of this so that they would have the right information upon which to base corrective action.”
“But Mike Morris never told me that he was going to bring my research up in the legislature. I was surprised. Pleasantly surprised. I never ever thought my profile would be featured for two minutes.”
“Now the genie is out of the bottle regarding RISK and LIABILITY. Once they know about the science of extremes and frequency, professionals have a duty to protect the public and properly advise policy makers.”
PART TWO – Younes Alila landed on a discovery that challenges mainstream practices
Younes Alila is a man on a mission. “What you see is what you get,” he says.
“In 1996, I found myself as a civil engineer, trained in a totally different discipline, brought in to practice among professionals who have very different backgrounds.”
“World-wide, I believe I was the first civil engineer to be slotted in an academic forest hydrology position. Typically, a forest hydrologist comes with forest science or perhaps physical geography undergraduate training. But not engineering. So, in a sense, I broke the record!”
Re-examining an old paradigm through a new lens
“I asked myself what should my research focus be in the context of the effects of forest management and logging practices on hydrology in channel systems? I saw an opportunity to apply my watershed modelling experience to existing long-term data sets.”
“Before I knew it, I started realizing that the outcomes of my analyses were diametrically opposite to over 100 years of well-established wisdom and literature in forest hydrology and to a great deal.”
“Unfortunately, the paradigm that has dominated forest hydrology research and thus influenced professional practice is fundamentally flawed. It underestimates the effect of logging on hydrology.”
The courage to call out the elephant in the room
“When I landed on that significant finding, and I found myself having to fight for it, I became a non-mainstream scientist within the forest hydrology community worldwide.”
“It became personal for me to continue advocating for what I strongly believe to be the only framework that should guide…not just the science…but most importantly professional practice.”
“Yet it is not a discovery outside forest hydrology. The probabilistic framework is not a new science. Absolutely not. It is very well established. BUT NOT IN FOREST HYDROLOGY. It is the standard everywhere else.”
“When you investigate something and you land on some kind of a finding that goes against the grain, against conventional wisdom…and you believe the framework for the replacement paradigm should not be dismissed…then you too are going to push back. That is what I am doing. And so far, we have prevailed.”
PART THREE – Floods, their frequency, and the urgency to deal with heightened risks
Hydrology 101
“When all the boundary conditions are known, we call it deterministic modelling. This is what the BC River Forecast Centre does when an atmospheric river is incoming, and the Centre produces flood bulletins and advisories.”
“But that mode of understanding applies only to a single event, isolated from its historic context. It has misguided forest hydrology practice for over a century and counting.”
“When your objective is to evaluate the effects of climate change and/or urbanization on flood risk and frequencies, you must take into account the fact that the factors that affect floods are not only multiple but also chancy, i.e. randomly occurring over time. And you can only do that with a probabilistic framework.”
Failure to understand the difference has consequences
“On one hand we use the right terminology when we speak! When we speak we say risk of extremes as in drought risk, flood risk, wildfire risk, landslide risk but our actions on the ground as professionals and scientists are still guided (or misguided) by determinism.”
“In 1982, John Hewlett urged use of the probabilistic framework in forest hydrology, and that is what we have been advocating for independently. But this cue from the godfather of forest hydrology was completely missed.”
“We cannot predict if we do not have a solid enough understanding of the system response. In our case, watersheds.”
“What I have learned since I became a professor is that not all published science adheres to the science method: asking the right questions, setting the right hypotheses, controlling the experimental design, assuring causal inference, etc.”
Why engineering solutions will never be adequate for managing flood risk
“All the time, professionals manage flood risk in the low land (urban areas) by adopting purely engineering solutions such as increasing the size of bridges and culverts and raising the dikes.”
Look at the system as a whole:
“Downstream engineering solutions treat the symptoms and not the root causes of an increase in flood risk, which actually happen in the headwaters. This is why relying solely on engineering solutions will never be adequate for managing flood risk.”
“Flood mitigation work in the low land (often urban areas) must be in sync with our land use and forest cover policies in the uplands. This is our only hope of increasing our chance of managing flood risk.”
Look at cumulative effects:
“Making engineered structures bigger will not solve the flood risk problem. The reason is that flood events smaller than the design capacity of such structures become more frequent as a result of climate or land cover changes.”
When engineering education is not grounded in an understanding of Nature
“I am a registered professional engineer. But I have always believed that the engineering education I received is narrow in scope and not grounded in the deeper understanding of Nature.”
“Engineering education is focused on equations and models with little understanding of how such models and equations are representing the systems response we are trying to predict and control.”
“When responsibility to protect the public relies heavily on professionals that leads us to the question: What type of education are these professionals getting?“
“The reductionist-deterministic paradigm still dominates teaching in the classrooms. We are not training future talents to appreciate enough variability and extremes in Nature and, hence, the need for the alternative holistic-probabilistic paradigm. I believe this is a problem not just with engineering but across all specialties and sectors.”
In summing up, Younes Alila poses this question:
“Can we afford to continue on the same path when the stakes are high? The BC flood events of November 2021 are reported to have killed at least 6 people, triggered lawsuits, and caused billions of dollars in damage!”
With the foregoing as context, the reader is urged to set aside another 45 minutes to watch a UBC webinar featuring Younes Alila
To Learn More:
To read the complete story, download a copy of Living Water Smart in British Columbia: Landscapes and watersheds in BC are at a heightened risk.
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