FOOD SECURITY IS AT THE INTERSECTION OF LAND, WATER, AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE: “We got lucky with the timing for the launch of the Canada Food Flows interactive portal. Overnight, food security is a national priority due to Donald Trump’s threats,” stated Dr. Kushank Bajaj, researcher at the UBC Land Use and Global Environment Lab

Note to Reader:

Published by the Partnership for Water Sustainability in British Columbia, Waterbucket eNews celebrates the leadership of individuals and organizations who are guided by the Living Water Smart vision. The edition published on March 11, 2025 featured Dr. Kushank Bajaj of the University of British Columbia and the Partnership’s Ted van der Gulik. US President Donald Trump’s economic war against Canada has shone the spotlight on British Columbia’s food security vulnerabilities.

Trump’s attack on Canada shines spotlight on food security vulnerabilities

Donald Trump’s threats have put food security on the front burner in BC. What is at stake for British Columbia? How much does our province rely on imported fruits and vegetables, particularly from the United States?

Canada Food Flows, an online and interactive portal developed at the University of British Columbia, provides answers. “Our food systems need to be transformed. Our supply chains are vulnerable,” says Kushank Bajaj, co-creator of the Canada Food Flows tool.

“Like Google maps for your dinner plate, the portal shows where 34 popular fruits and vegetables regularly consumed by Canadians come from. Imports from the USA dominate key fresh foods.”

Beyond Borders: Assessing Climate Risks in Globalized Food Systems

Food security is at the intersection of land, water, agriculture, and climate 

EDITOR’S PERSPECTIVE / CONTEXT FOR BUSY READER

“Ted van der Gulik and I had a conversation with Kushank Bajaj because we perceive his research work as aligning with the mission of the Partnership. It is always about connecting dots when we have conversations such as this,” states Kim Stephens, Waterbucket eNews Editor and Partnership Executive Director.

“From my editor’s perspective, the story behind the story is about the insights that Kushank and Ted shared with each other; and how interweaving their two perspectives results in a compelling storyline. And a call to action!”

“In 1973, a strategic political decision was made to create the Agricultural Land Reserve. So, most of the Fraser Valley was protected as farmland. But even so, the integrity of land within the ALR has been compromised in recent decades.”

Land use, water need, food security and risk reduction in an era of uncertainty

“To provide reliable answers to those questions, the provincial government can draw upon the Agriculture Water Demand Model and the Agricultural Land Use Inventory program. These powerful tools yields accurate data about land use and water need in an era when climate change creates uncertainty and risks.”

Acceleration of the global hydrologic cycle means that British Columbia has crossed into a new climate regime

“A decade ago, we crossed an invisible hydrologic threshold into a new climate regime. The critical summer season has doubled…from mostly rain-free weather for up to 3-months to full-on droughts for up to 6-months…right when we need a reliable supply of water to grow food. We can expect deeper, more persistent drought punctuated by flooding,” concludes Kim Stephens.

How will British Columbians meet the moment?

STORY BEHIND THE STORY: Food security is at the intersection of land, water, agriculture, and climate – a conversation with Dr. Kushank Banjaj and Ted van der Gulik 

In Part Three, Kushank Bajaj and Ted van der Gulik share their perspectives on WHAT NEXT for food and water security, respectively. “British Columbia is water-rich but only at certain times of the year,” states Ted van der Gulik.

PART ONE: Kushank Bajaj provides context for Canada’s vulnerability as a net food importer

“And we asked, what is the exposure of different provinces in different fruit and vegetable supply chains?”

“Almost always Canada’s exposure within our borders to weather extremes are lower, relatively speaking, than the risks in the international regions we depend upon. And that makes us extremely vulnerable as a net food importer.”

“BC and other western provinces source much of their fruit and vegetables from California and Mexico, two regions at high risk of climate-change-induced drought. Eastern provinces, on the other hand, often have a much more diverse supply.”

Who is Kushank Bajaj and what inspired his research? 

“I am a data scientist. I started my career as a geologist / earth scientist in India where I worked for a small not-for-profit grassroots organization.”

“I worked with data sets such as: satellite and water level data, economic data, and agriculture practices. Then I worked as an earth scientist with the Ministry of Earth Sciences for a few years before coming to UBC to do my PhD.”

“My initial idea was to return to India and support farmers in India. But COVID happened and I was exposed to so much broader research as part of the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability at UBC. This is an interdisciplinary division working on social problems.”

Assessing Climate Risks in Globalized Food Systems

“Knowing that Canada is heavily reliant on other places for fruits and vegetables was one way to delve into the actual climate change risk assessment. Looking at risks meant looking at the entire supply chain, not just domestic production.”

“After that, it was a question of how do we make the research more useful for people. So, we developed the Canada Food Flows portal as an online knowledge mobilization platform.”

Canada may be a breadbasket but nutritional security overshadows caloric security in importance

“My bigger motivation for looking beyond Canada’s borders resulted from my participation in a consultation session held in Ottawa in 2021. The consultation included policymakers, the Minister of Agriculture, and super powerful people within the agriculture food space.”

“But I thought that they were missing a really key part here. If you want to have a conversation around nutritional security, and not just caloric security, we need to think about other commodities. And Canada is also reliant on other places.”

“Those two things, climate risk and nutritional security, made Navin and me start thinking about looking at Canada’s fruit and vegetable supply. And that is why my thesis is titled  Beyond Borders: Assessing Climate Risks in Globalized Food Systems.”

“There was some bilateral trade data which is disaggregated by US state. This basically tells us what kinds of food come from different US states and every other country in the world. But there were lots of challenges in using that data.”

“So, our research objective was to identify how reliant are different Canadian provinces on different regions in the world; and look at it over time. It started as developing a dataset because we knew we could use it to understand lots of different things. But we chose to focus on climate risks.”

Going beyond the research to mobilize the knowledge

“The foregoing is the research side of things. When I started my PhD, I was convinced that I just wanted to publish research papers. And I also wanted to do something that would be more useful or relatable to people who are farmers.”

“How could we ensure that the knowledge does not die in the research paper because only a handful of people ever read about the project? The is the story behind the story of why we developed the knowledge mobilization platform which is the Canada Food Flows portal.”

“When I developed the first prototype, it did not have as much functionality as we would have liked. So, a friend who was an app developer helped me develop the portal. We did not have a lot of funding to do it. It was a kind of side of the desk project.”

“UBC did an official launch and the engagement numbers are incredible…for example, over 100,000 people viewed the portal over the two days prior to this interview. The  fact that we have been able to reach so many people has truly been fulfilling,” concludes Kushank Bajaj.

PART TWO: Ted van der Gulik provides an overview of water security realities within BC

In 1997, he was appointed to the cross-sector provincial working group which was led by the Ministry of Environment and developed A Water Conservation Strategy for British Columbia, released in 1998.

The Strategy laid the groundwork for the Water Sustainability Action Plan for British Columbia. In turn, the Action Plan was the springboard to Living Water Smart, British Columbia’s Water Plan.

“I said to Denise, we don’t even know how much water we are using, we don’t know how much we need, we don’t know how much there is. How can people suggest that taking water from agriculture is the solution for urban water supply? And Denise said, then we should build a tool.”

Power of BC’s Agricultural Water Demand Model for climate change risk reduction

“My conversation with Denise Neilsen was the beginning of our collaboration to develop British Columbia’s Agriculture Water Demand Model tool. We had an idea and we made it happen.”

“The Province, and more specifically the Ministry of Agriculture, owns both the model and the land use inventories. Having these tools allows the Province to determine very accurately how much water agriculture is using in a given year and what it could use under a climate change scenario.”

“This means that the Province has the capability to align water allocation and water use during the critical period from mid-summer through early fall when water supply is usually short and demand is at a maximum.”

“A GIS system is used to identify separate polygons for both crops and irrigation systems within each property. The Province started the program in the Okanagan and then went province-wide with it.”

Validation, province-wide application, and updating of the Agricultural Water Demand Model

“We had daily climate data on a 500-metre grid for each year from 1961 through 2010. We could run the model for every year of record. We ran it and tested it against places like the Southeast Kelowna Irrigation District which is metered. The Agricultural Water Demand Model mimicked actual water use very closely.”

“So now the Ministry of Agriculture has a model that is very good in projecting where water use for agriculture is going to go, and what would happen if we changed to more efficient irrigation systems.”

“Farm water demand is determined by spatially overlaying crops, soils, irrigation systems and climate data for every property in BC. This allows us to estimate the total water demand for a specific area.”

The ALR saved the land for farming but… 

“All things considered, our land really is not that secure. Sure, land in the ALR is supposed to be held for agricultural use. But it is being used for a whole range of other purposes.”

“The Fraser Valley can grow a lot of the food that we need…vegetables, dairy and poultry. The fertile Fraser Valley is the best farmland in the province. And it is also some of the best  farmland in Canada.”

“But we are slowly losing our land base for growing food. It is not just because land is coming out of the Agricultural Land Reserve. Rather, it is also about what is happening on the land within the ALR. Farmland is being lost to non-agricultural uses.”

In summary, Ted van der Gulik concludes that…

“These are the things that government has to struggle with. In the months and years ahead, it will require extremely good and knowledgeable leadership to make the right decisions and get tough to do the right things.”

“In 1973, British Columbia had the incredible foresight to legally protect the very limited amount of land we have that can grow food. And now we need to do the same with water through an Agriculture Water Reserve.”

“The Water Sustainability Act includes language for Agricultural Water Reserves. The agricultural land use inventories and agricultural water demand model will be integral to developing an agricultural water reserve in any area of the province.”

PART THREE: What next for land, water and food security in British Columbia?

“Now people have different expectations because they have become accustomed to having whatever food they want, whenever they want it, year-round. These habits and diets may be hard to change,” muses Kushank Bajaj.

Keep building partnerships to do meaningful work

“Ideally, we would like to expand Canada Food Flows in a few different ways on both the back-end data and applications side of the portal. We want to expand beyond fruits and vegetables to look at all commodities. And include exports going out of Canada,” continues Kushank Bajaj.

“On a personal note, I want to do more meaningful work which is on the ground meaningful. So, I want to keep building partnerships in BC and doing the kind of work I do in Canada.”

“Now with what I have learned from Ted van der Gulik about the Agricultural Land Use Inventory program, it would be exciting to do that in a way that aligns with the work of the Partnership for Water Sustainability,” says Kushank Bajaj in summarizing how he envisions a path forward might possibly look like.

Food security is still within our grasp

“Collectively what we need in British Columbia is a mind-set change to affect an attitude shift,” says Ted van der Gulik with emphasis. “People need to care about what is done to land and water so that they can be protected for the benefit of everyone.”

“Without a shift in thinking, sustainable water management may never be achieved in British Columbia. But Trump’s threats make a mind-set change possible. And the Canada Food Flows findings are galvanizing.”

“Embracing an attitude change cannot be led by one entity alone. Getting everyone on the same page will require building trust between all sectors and accepting what mainstream science is telling us. Where and how we start that process is still an unknown,” concludes Ted van der Gulik.

Living Water Smart in British Columbia Series

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